DataGreat has unveiled a new analysis through its Crisis Impact Simulator, exploring potential shifts in European and eastern Mediterranean tourism due to renewed disruptions in Russian outbound travel. This analysis leverages data from the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025. The initial shock to Russian tourism, sparked by the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions and travel restrictions, largely diverted Russian travelers from EU countries to destinations such as Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. As a result, EU countries that once enjoyed significant Russian tourist numbers experienced a decline of over seventy percent since 2022.
The latest scenario examined by DataGreat considers the implications of a second wave of disruptions, potentially brought on by stricter sanctions, further travel route closures, or economic factors like ruble depreciation. The simulator projects a potential drop in Russian outbound tourism by twenty to thirty-five percent to various destinations over a year. It categorizes the exposure into three segments: EU destinations still receiving Russian tourists, Mediterranean areas dependent on package holidays and charters, and absorber markets such as Türkiye, where the focus is on whether alternative tourism sources can compensate for any decline in Russian visitors.
Operators most at risk, according to the simulator’s segment-vulnerability assessment, include those reliant on Russian-language tour groups, charter-dependent package operators, and all-inclusive resorts during the off-peak seasons. The analysis uses deterministic calculations based on inbound share data, with an AI component providing contextual narratives. To mitigate potential impacts, the simulator suggests diversifying source markets towards the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and India, repositioning tourism products to attract European visitors, and currency-hedging strategies for businesses with substantial ruble-based transactions.
This scenario analysis is part of DataGreat’s broader Risk Radar module, which evaluates 42 destinations weekly across six tourism risk categories, including source-market concentration. Together, these tools allow analysts to transition from identifying exposed destinations to understanding the specific impact of potential shocks on different tourism segments. DataGreat plans to release detailed, destination-specific insights from the simulator gradually until 2026, with credentialed media having the option to request comprehensive outputs for any of the 42 destinations in the WTTC dataset.
DataGreat, operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş. in Türkiye, is a tourism intelligence platform that provides a range of analytic tools, including Persona Builder and Campaign Brief Generator, alongside its Crisis Impact Simulator. The platform’s comprehensive data suite covers 42 countries and offers 26,880 verified data points, positioning it as a valuable resource for understanding tourism dynamics in a rapidly changing global environment.
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